EV demand remains strong as drivers await ZEV Mandate
In March, electric cars accounted for 16.21% of all new car registrations in the UK, as the exponential growth in EV uptake seen in recent years begins to stabilise. While demand for electric vehicles is still high, it is likely that slower rates of growth will continue until the ZEV Mandate is implemented in 2024, and supply is able to consistently match consumer demand.
⚡ What Our Data Shows
Ben Nelmes, Chief Executive Officer at New AutoMotive, said:
“Electric car sales for March were strong, but did not grow as much as in recent years. Around one in six new cars sold in the UK was electric, roughly the same number as this time last year.”
“Consumer demand is still strong, but the government has a role to play in boosting the supply of electric cars to the UK and reducing down the cost of going electric.”
“The government’s latest proposals for a California-style Zero Emissions Vehicle mandate are a strong signal that the UK government is committed to its ambition to end the sale of petrol and diesel cars by 2035, and will boost the supply of electric cars into the UK, making it cheaper and easier for British drivers to go electric.”
The full data release is available here. You can view the data on our interactive dashboard, here.
📈 UK market overview
The electric vehicle segment of British new car sales was solid at 16.21% in March, and while the UK can still confidently expect electric to hit the initial 20% market share target laid out in the most recent ZEV Mandate consultation, it may be that more exponential growth doesn’t occur until the Mandate is implemented in 2024. Electric’s market share for last month was roughly the same market share as in March 2022 - as seen in the above graph - and a sign that the exponential growth in electric registrations seen over the past few years is beginning to stabilise. Electric’s share of the market over 2023 to date is still significantly higher than it was in 2019, 2020, and 2021, but is moving at a trajectory similar to that of 2022. The implementation of the ZEV Mandate for 2024 may be key to reigniting an exponential growth in electric car sales.
Table 3 provides a full UK market overview, and will be updated from 3rd of the month, or the next working day after that.
💡 Tracking Consumer Demand: Popular Electric Models & Marques
This new quarterly section uses order data from Octopus EV, the UK’s leading EV leasing provider, to track the most popular electric car models and manufacturers.
Commenting on these figures, Fiona Howarth, CEO of Octopus Electric Vehicles, said:
“Demand for EVs on salary sacrifice - where cycle-to-work meets EVs - has taken off in the UK. We have more enquiries and orders month-on-month as people wake up to the benefits of going electric. With the tax benefits and low cost charging, EVs are now cheaper to run than their gas guzzling equivalents.
“The MG 4 has taken the market by storm, so it’s no surprise to see it in pole position with our customers. Its range, size and competitive price makes it the obvious choice for families looking to switch over to green driving.”
“Audi is potentially the biggest winner we’ve seen this quarter. The newly revamped Q8 is dominating the premium SUV market with real world range (over 300 miles) that is blowing competitors out of the water.”
“It’s over to the Government to keep the EV revolution fully charged. The recently published ZEV Mandate and ongoing commitment to a great charging network will ensure manufacturers know that the UK no longer wants dirty cars. More models at higher volumes will drive more demand, lower costs and cleaner air for all."
📌 Regional highlights
Oxfordshire continues its regular dominance of this table, with an impressive 44% of all cars registered in the area in March being electric. Wimbledon was a distant second, at 31%, with the Bristol DVLA region coming in third, with 24%. We track regional registrations using a three-month rolling average, which masks big variations in EV market share from month to month. The DVLA areas and regions with the highest share of EVs are as follows:
Oxfordshire - 44%
Wimbledon - 31%
Bristol - 24%
Birmingham - 22%
Peterborough - 21%
Newcastle - 20%
Refer to tables 4 & 5 for full regional statistics, and will be updated from 3rd of the month, or the next working day after that.
🚗 The race for EV market share
Tesla dominated the electric segment of the British new car market in March, as they usually do in a month where they make deliveries. Despite recent turbulence around the company, it still has a strong grip on the UK’s electric car market, with its market share (23.49%) almost double that of MG who came in at second place, claiming 10.92% of the market. Outside of the top two, European manufacturers dominated the rest of this table, collectively claiming 30% of the market.
For the full data, and year-on-year comparisons, refer to table 1 in the full release, which will be available from 3rd of the month, or the next working day after that.
📊 The brands who are quickest to electrify
In a month where the EU committed to exempt cars that run on e-fuels from regulation that will see only zero-tailpipe emissions cars to be sold from 2035 onwards, European manufacturers dominated this table. Seven of the top ten marques on this table are based in Europe - including household names like Porsche, Volvo, BMW, and Audi. This dominance highlights the growing importance of electric cars to the future of European car exports, and raises serious questions about the decision to provide an exemption for e-fuels. With more Chinese EV marques looking to begin exporting their vehicles over the next 12 months, competition for a share of the electric segment of markets around the world will become more intense. The EU’s e-fuels loophole risks shifting European manufacturers' focus at a crucial time - just as competition in the rapidly growing global market for electric vehicles really heats up.
We exclude brands that are 100% electric from this table since they do not need to electrify their sales. For the full data, refer to table 2 in the full release, which will be available from 3rd of the month, or the next working day after that.
About Electric Car Count
Electric Car Count is a monthly data series from New AutoMotive, a not-for-profit independent transport research organisation with a mission to accelerate and support the UK’s transition to electric vehicles. You can find out more about New AutoMotive by visiting www.newautomotive.org/mission
Electric Car Count provides an overview of the newly licensed passenger cars. It is released monthly, in the first few days of each month, providing data on the previous month’s newly licensed cars. In the UK, vehicles must be licensed (also known as registered) to be legally driven on UK roads.
We provide an overview of the state of the market, showing the number of cars registered by each manufacturer, broken down by fuel type. This provides a new way to track the transition to EVs in the UK.
Visit our interactive data dashboard here: www.newautomotive.org/ecc
For more background information on the statistics we provide, you can read our blog about the race for EV market share: www.newautomotive.org/blog/the-race-for-ev-market-share-is-under-way
Data sources & methodology
The data is shows the number of type M1 vehicles (i.e. passenger cars) in the DVLA’s vehicle licensing database as it stands on, or shortly after, the 1st day of the month. The DVLA’s vehicle licensing database is the legal record of all vehicles licensed for use in the UK. We obtain the data from the DVLA’s vehicle enquiry service API, and the DVSA’s MOT history API.
The data covers all cars with a standard form UK vehicle registration mark (VRM, i.e. the vehicle’s number plate), but does not capture any vehicles with personalised VRMs.
Terminology
We use the following terms to refer to vehicle fuel types:
Pure electric: battery electric, or other purely electric-powered vehicles (such as hydrogen). These are vehicles where the drivetrain of the vehicle is only electric, with no facility to drive using a fossil fuelled engine.
Hybrid: vehicles that have the ability to drive under electric power or under fossil fuel power. These include vehicles classified by the DVLA as “hybrid electric”, “electric diesel”, for example.
Q&A
Why are the numbers different from other organisations, such as the SMMT?
Our numbers are typically slightly different from those published by the SMMT. We cannot speculate as to why this is because the SMMT do not publish the methodology for obtaining their vehicle data.
Our data is based on the DVLA’s legal record of vehicles licensed as it stands on the first of the month.
Our methodology does not capture newly registered vehicles with a personalised number plate. These take longer to appear in our database, and are not included in the monthly release. We do not believe that these are a statistically significant part of the market.
Will you make this data open and accessible to more organisations?
Yes, we are happy to supply the data to anyone where doing so will not conflict with our mission. We encourage people to reach out to us on data@newautomotive.org.