7 in 10 drivers now want electric vans - what are the obstacles?
Electric vans took just 4% of the market this month, highlighting the task ahead for manufacturers, while diesels remain stubbornly high with a market share of 93%. New research conducted by Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles showed 70% of van drivers thought an electric van would be suitable for their business. This is further evidence that consumer interest is there, but the government and the manufacturers must act on this in order to start seeing rises in uptake.
⚡ What Our Data Shows
Ciara Cook, Research and Policy Officer at New AutoMotive, said:
“May’s registration figures highlight the need for both the government and manufacturers to ensure there is a ready supply of electric vans as we head towards the phase-out of diesel and petrol vehicles. Businesses are keen to make the switch, but more needs to be done to translate that interest into vehicles bought.”
“The ZEV Mandate will help to push manufacturers towards prioritising electric vans over the development of diesel or the much maligned hybrids. The government needs to ensure that the multiple flexibilities in the scheme does not mean that manufacturers can simply continue with business as usual and not properly funnel their supply chain away from diesels, and towards electric.”
“Once a market-pushing ZEV Mandate has been implemented by the government the manufacturers will have to start ramping up their production. However, they should not use this time to rest on their laurels, but use this time to start shoring up their production capabilities and supply chain.”
The full data release is available here. You can view the data on our interactive dashboard, here.
📈 UK market overview
With the electric segment making up 4% of the market this month, it was diesel that made up the lion's share of sales. With diesels still making up the vast majority of sales, it highlights the necessity of the ZEV Mandate to inject much needed certainty into the market. Again, we see hybrids making up under 1% of the market - a clear sign the government needs to ditch the hybrids as well as the diesels.
For the full data, and year-on-year comparisons, refer to table 1 in the full release.
🚗 ZEV Mandate: State of the Market
We estimate that the 16 makes that are eligible for inclusion in the ZEV Mandate would collectively be 308 credits short of meeting their regulatory requirements if the 2024 target were in force in the last 12 months. It is important to note that this is before any of the flexibilities, apart from the CO2 credit swapping, has been enacted. This highlights the need for the government to look at the levels of the trajectory in light of the flexibilities in the scheme. If the scheme was enacted now, it is unlikely to be one which is market pushing. Instead it would likely act more like a back stop for the industry.
Overall market credit surplus/deficit: -308 credits
Individual Manufacturer ZEV Mandate Performance
Looking at the individual manufacturers' performances we can see that Ford, Volkswagen, Renault, Citroen, Isuzu, Fiat and Man will have a credit deficit, with Nissan and Toyota having a surplus if they use the CO2 credit sharing flexibility. Vauxhall, Mercedes-Benz, Peugeot, Maxus, Iveco and Renault Trucks are those manufacturers with a surplus and likely to benefit from the scheme.
📊 The brands who are quickest to electrify
Maxus, as we have come to expect, has topped the table for manufacturers who are electrifying the fastest. 29% of their vans were electric in May, while other manufacturers have a long way to go. It’s encouraging to see the top 4 manufacturers all close, and exceeding 10% market share, which is the starting point of the ZEV Mandate. However, it is important the government takes notice of this when finalising the policy.
We exclude brands that are 100% electric from this table since they do not need to electrify their sales. For the full data, refer to table 2 in the full release.
We exclude brands that are 100% electric from this table since they do not need to electrify their sales. For the full data, refer to table 2 in the full release.
📊 The race for EV market share
Peugeot has topped the table this month with 17% of the UK electric van market. They are a manufacturer that does not usually top this table; that they have this month demonstrates that the race for market dominance is wide open at this early stage of the transition. Vauxhall made up nearly 50% of all electric van sales last month but has managed just 15% this month, coming second in the table and seeing a reduction in registrations comparing figures with last year.
For the full data, and year-on-year comparisons, refer to table 1 in the full release.
Notes
About Electric Van Count
Electric Van Count is a monthly data series from New AutoMotive, a not-for-profit independent transport research organisation with a mission to accelerate and support the UK’s transition to electric vehicles. You can find out more about New AutoMotive by visiting www.newautomotive.org/mission
Electric Van Count provides an overview of the newly licensed vans. It is released monthly, on the second Monday of each month, providing data on the previous month’s newly licensed vans. In the UK, vehicles must be licensed (also known as registered) to be legally driven on UK roads.
We provide an overview of the state of the market, showing the number of cars registered by each manufacturer, broken down by fuel type. This provides a new way to track the transition to Electric vans in the UK.
Visit our interactive data dashboard here: https://newautomotive.org/evc
For more background information on the statistics we provide, you can read our blog about the race for EV market share: www.newautomotive.org/blog/the-race-for-ev-market-share-is-under-way
Data sources & methodology
The data shows the number of type N1 vehicles (vehicles for the carriage of goods with a maximum mass not exceeding 3.5 tonnes) in the DVLA’s vehicle licensing database as it stands on, or shortly after, the 1st day of the month. The DVLA’s vehicle licensing database is the legal record of all vehicles licensed for use in the UK. We obtain the data from the DVLA’s vehicle enquiry service API, and the DVSA’s MOT history API.
The data covers all vans with a standard form UK vehicle registration mark (VRM, i.e. the vehicle’s number plate), but does not capture any vehicles with personalised VRMs.
Terminology
We use the following terms to refer to vehicle fuel types:
Pure electric: battery electric, or other purely electric-powered vehicles (such as hydrogen). These are vehicles where the drivetrain of the vehicle is only electric, with no facility to drive using a fossil fuelled engine.
Hybrid: vehicles that have the ability to drive under electric power or under fossil fuel power. These include vehicles classified by the DVLA as “hybrid electric”, “electric diesel”, for example.
Q&A
Why are the numbers different from other organisations, such as the SMMT?
Our numbers are typically slightly different from those published by the SMMT. We cannot speculate as to why this is because the SMMT do not publish the methodology for obtaining their vehicle data.
Our data is based on the DVLA’s legal record of vehicles licensed as it stands on the first of the month.
Our methodology does not capture newly registered vehicles with a personalised number plate. These take longer to appear in our database, and are not included in the monthly release. We do not believe that these are a statistically significant part of the market.
Will you make this data open and accessible to more organisations?
Yes, we are happy to supply the data to anyone where doing so will not conflict with our mission. We encourage people to reach out to us on data@newautomotive.org.